WE’RE just over a month away from Guineas weekend at Newmarket where Aidan O’Brien will be hoping to end his shocking drought.
Yes, folks, it’s all of three years since the world’s top trainer lifted the 1,000 Guineas and you have to go way back to 2019 for him taking the 2,000 — he should be ashamed of himself!
He has the current first two in the betting for the first colts’ Classic in Expanded and The Lion In Winter.
The latter has been on the drift since O’Brien admitted he may not be quite ready for Newmarket in May.
That’s a shame because he was sensational when smashing the York track record winning the Acomb in August.
The master trainer is talking about going straight for the Derby if he’s not A1 for the Guineas.
With most yards that would be a worry — but not with O’Brien who certainly knows how to train an Epsom winner.
It then looked like like Expanded may be Ryan Moore’s Guineas mount.
He was beaten fair and square by Charlie Appleby’s Shadow Of Light in the Dewhurst at Newmarket and there’s no obvious reason why he should be half his conqueror’s odds for the Classic.
But the trainer didn’t sound too hot on him making Newmarket either so it could fall to Twain as the Ballydoyle No1.
Whoever turns up they will obviously demand total respect.
At an each-way price, don’t rule out another Godolphin runner in 10-1 shot RULING COURT.
He sweated up and looked greener than The Lion In Winter when chasing him home in the Acomb and we know he has wintered well after he scored at Meydan on March 1.
He took that Listed race nicely and has more improvement to come.
Appleby has hot 1,000 Guineas favourite Desert Flower who was so impressive when winning the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket.
Four of the past nine winners of the fillies’ first Classic took that route and she shapes as though the Guineas trip will suit much better than the extra half-mile of the Oaks.
But she’s hovering around the 13-8 mark which means there is plenty of each-way value in the market.
Lake Victoria was an incredible two-year-old who landed a Group 1 hat-trick including the Breeders’ Cup juvenile fillies.
Some bookies were just 3-1 for the Guineas while Ladbrokes have had her at 8s which has to be a slight worry… even if she is now back into 6-1.
There is another Ballydoyle contender who looks solid each-way — BUBBLING.
She was excellent when winning the Rockfel at Newmarket over seven furlongs in September and should step up again over the mile.
She enjoyed the cut in the ground so some give would be ideal on May 4.
She can be backed at as big as 33-1, so it’s worth taking the chance there will be some rain around Newmarket.
Looking ahead to the Oaks, a small interest in SMOKEN at 25-1 looks a wise move.
She was part of Ralph Beckett’s stellar season last year and, after winning a Nottingham maiden on debut, she stepped up to take the Listed Montrose Stakes at Newmarket easily.
It was soft that day but she doesn’t need it on breeding and looks full of stamina with a touch of class you need.