If he’s going to run a big one… this is it – My 13-2 Grand National Festival day one tip simply loves Aintree

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IT once used to be all about horses-for-courses when it came to the Aintree Grand National meeting.

That’s no longer the case — but it doesn’t mean the old analogy won’t come in handy when trying to find a winner on the first day.

Horse and jockey jumping a fence during a horse race.
Ahoy Senor is a bit bonkers but he saves his best jumping for Aintree

AHOY SENOR (2.55) takes on seven rivals in the feature Grade 1 Bowl with desperate recent form figures of PPF!

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But in six outings at Aintree he has rattled up numbers that read 113223, and his first Grade 1 win came here at 66-1 over hurdles.

The simple truth is this — if Ahoy Senor is going to run a big one this season it’s today.

He fell at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup when going happily at the 15th fence and he was a little unlucky to topple over.

He loves the Liverpool air and, if getting into a rhythm, he has each-way claims for Lucinda Russell and Patrick Wadge.

Opposition includes Grey Dawning, Spillane’s Tower and an up-in-trip Gaelic Warrior.

It’s a decent renewal.

IMPAIRE ET PASSE (1.45) is my strong fancy in the opening Manifesto Chase — the first of SIX races on ITV.

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He was the best of these over hurdles and drying ground might well be in his favour with a fine win at Sandown to his name on good going.

The Willie Mullins runner won a Grade 1 hurdle at this track this time last year and, while he never looked happy behind Ballyburn at Leopardstown last time, I liked the way he rallied on the bend for third (Croke Park in second).

The former Grade 1 Ballymore winner might just have a bit too much class for this field.

I will have to leave out Jango Baie who was brilliant for this column and me at Cheltenham. I wish him well.

The second of four Grade 1s is the Anniversary Hurdle and Nimble can land the bread.

I thought NATURALLY NIMBLE (2.20) had every chance at Cheltenham but didn’t run.

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He was a Grade 3 winner at Fairyhouse two runs ago and a fair fourth to Hello Neighbour at Leopardstown when staying on well.

Fresh is usually best at this meeting and my fancy looks good at 5-1.

The final top-level race on a fabulous first day is the Aintree Hurdle — and, folks, I stick by my belief CONSTITUTION HILL (3.30) is the BEST hurdler I have ever seen.

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He may prefer two miles but he has won this two and a half miler before and has had extensive schooling since a rather embarrassing fall in the Champion Hurdle.

He is rated a 15lb better horse than only threat Lossiemouth and, as good as she is, Con Hill will be too strong.

The Foxhunters — the first race of the week over the National fences — promises to be plenty of fun and FAMOUS CLERMONT (4.05) can make a name for himself again.

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He was brilliant when winning this in 2023 and comes into this in winning form from a point to point race at Cothelstone, Somerset.

PETIT TONNERRE (4.40) is not everybody’s favourite but he can take the Red Rum Handicap Chase.

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He finally got back to winning ways two runs ago at Doncaster and was still cruising at the same track off a 5lb higher mark when bought down on his last run.

The Grade 2 mares’ bumper closes the show and this is a proper guessing game.

My pin came down on BLUE BETTY (5.15) who travelled and ran on well on the Newcastle all-weather last time and has more improvement in her.

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Good luck… and Yeeehaaa!